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Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)
Welcome to our August Beef Market Outlook report, where we uncover the latest happenings in the world beef cattle markets across the world. Our insights draw from comprehensive data to ensure you’re informed about the key trends shaping the beef industry landscape.
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CURRENT GLOBAL BEEF MARKET PRICES
Cattle prices have increased in China for the 2nd month in a row, while beef exports to China-Hong-Kong decreased in May and June, rendering better producer prices. Prices finally increased a little in Brazil (+1%) since domestic demand has improved and exports are 29% up. In Europe and the US, prices remained high in July, from lack of supply, even though in Europe the price declined a little.
EUROPE
Prices for young male beef decreased by 2% in July 2024, in US$, compared to the previous month. They also declined compared to July 2023, but more slightly (-1%). EU males’ prices usually recede a bit during summer: the hot weather decreases the demand for beef, mainly in Italy and Germany (more pork eaten in summer in the latter).
BRAZIL
Male beef prices slightly increased in July 2024 (+1%) compared to the previous month, after having fallen by 7% between May and June. In Reals, the price increased more quickly (+4%) because the local currency is still down compared to the US$ (lack of confidence in the Brazilian economy and political instability in the US). Inflation in Brazil has decreased during the 1st Semester, at 2.5%, against 3.15% during the same period a year earlier. According to IBGE statistical institute, the country’s real income in the March-May period increased by 2.5% compared to 2023. This increase boosted the domestic demand for beef while beef exports during the first semester were 29% over last year’s level (Secex). Export and domestic demand put some pressure on the market and stopped the price drop.
CHINA
In July, Chinese cattle prices were recovering for the second month (+3% /June) just as in June, in US$ and in CNY. The prices are still behind 2023 (-12% / July ’23) but the gap is reclining. The beef demand in China is sluggish because of the bad economic situation of the country. The increase of beef production and imports in the last years has brought a surplus of beef, driving the local prices down. But the sluggish demand has led to a decrease of meat exports to China since May! In June, just as in May, World exports to China and Hong-Kong fell back by 21% (-70 000 tons cwe) compared to June 2023. Less imported beef on the market in May-June has led to better local prices for beef producers in June-July. Nevertheless, Bloomberg’s recent note, explained that farmers are asking their local governments to pay for forage and give subsidies, after the plunge in prices of 2023-24. Several dairy companies also announced they will give better prices to milk producers during the 3rd quarter of 2024, which may slow a bit down cow-culling.
USA
During the week of the 4th of July, finished steers’ prices went up, due to an increase in wholesale boxed beef prices. The price of the latter reclined afterwards, which brought a bit down the steers’ price. To summarize July, prices of live finished steers were slightly up again: +1% compared to June and were 6% up year over year (5% up one month before). Prices increased this year because of the lack of cattle in the US. The domestic demand for US beef seems quite strong now. Abroad the demand is strong in some countries: Japan (+14% exports in May compared to 2023) and Mexico (+15%) while others’ demand slackened (Canada, South Korea, China, etc). In total, US exports from January to May decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year.
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