Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)
Welcome back to our monthly Beef Market Outlook, the last of 2024! We’re diving into the latest developments across the beef cattle markets in Europe, Brazil, China, and the USA. Our analysis is rooted in comprehensive data, keeping you informed on the key trends driving the industry.
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GLOBAL BEEF MARKET TREND
In November, cattle prices declined for the second month in China, with a lot of Brazilian beef imported. Prices continued increasing quickly in Brazil, the import demand being strong in many countries. In Europe prices increased a little, the end of the year always boosting demand. Prices remained very high. The US prices sloped down a little, but nothing compared to the usual seasonal decrease.

BEEF PRICES IN EUROPE
In November, prices for male beef increased by 1% in US$, compared to the previous month, but by 3% in € (the € is currently falling compared to US$). Prices are at high level: +10% over last year’s level in US$. Young male prices are increasing because of the lack of stock in the EU, and demand for male’s meat is always higher when Christmas approaches, in Italy and Germany, for example.


BRAZIL BEEF MARKET SITUATION
Male beef prices continued to increase in November (+9% in a month, in US$) after having already increased by 16% in October. Compared to a year ago, prices were up by 22% too, because of the export demand. Prices went up more quickly even in Reals: +12% in a month! Brazilian exports are hitting records this year, particularly for shipping to China.


BEEF PRICES IN CHINA
In November, Chinese cattle prices fell back by 2%, compared to October, just as in September. Cattle prices are well under last year’s level (-21%). The sluggish demand due to economic difficulties and the past years’ increase in imports, weigh down on local prices. January to October imports are at high level: China and Hong-Kong’s beef and processed beef meat imports are equivalent to last year’s. Brazilian beef – cheaper than others – is booming: 1.4 million tons cwe sent: 12% over 2023 figures.


USA’S CATTLE MARKET
In November, steer prices went slightly down by 1% compared to previous month but were still above last year’s by 4%. The seasonal decline in beef prices hasn’t really occurred this year, since less cattle is available. Beef slaughtering for 2024 is expected to finish at the same level as 2023, notwithstanding the shrinking of the number of cows. New World Screwworm (NWS) was found in cattle in Chiapas which has provoked a ban which could last on the import of Mexican live cattle. This should decease cattle numbers slaughtered in 2025 in the US (-5%, USDA).

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