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26 Mar 2026
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What does the Beef Market Outlook for February 2026 reveal?
Welcome to the Beef Market Outlook February 2026, your monthly update on global beef markets and price trends. This edition analyses January 2026 data, covering the latest shifts in beef production, cattle prices, and export dynamics across Europe, Brazil, China, and the United States. With clear, data-driven insights, we highlight the key factors influencing global supply and demand, trade flows, and overall market profitability.
What were the key trends in global beef prices?
In January, European male prices continued their upward trend, mirroring gains in the United States, where prices have remained just below EU levels since October. Brazilian prices saw a modest increase, while Chinese prices remained lower.
How are beef prices evolving in Europe?
January male carcass prices continued to rise, with a 3% gain in a month, and standing 45% above 2025 levels! EU beef production contracted by 4% for 11 months in 2025, bringing slaughterhouses to often add a few $ to male prices. This trend could continue in 2026 with cattle herd at low levels.
What is happening with beef prices and production in the United States?
Prices fell in the autumn, after record high prices, but have almost recovered since. January steer prices were up by 3% in a month and 15% above 2025 high levels. Preliminary USDA data says beef slaughtering decreased by 4% in 2025. The US cattle herd, historically low, was 0.4% down year-over-year in January 2026. Beef cow numbers decreased by 1% y-o-y but beef heifers were up by 1%, which may increase the total herd and beef production in the next few years. US beef meat imports were up by 7% in January y-o-y and the US government multiplied by 5 the free-tariff quota for argentinian trimmings, to ease pressure on retail prices.
How is the beef market performing in Brazil?
Brazilian beef prices increased by 2% in a month in January, and were above early 2025 level in US$ (+11%) but not in Réais (-1% year-over-year). Beef production increased by 4% in 2025 (estimates) and exports bounced up by 21%, including to China and Hong Kong: +24% at 2.2 million tons cwe. Even though China has put a 55% tariff on exports above 1.1 million tons from Brazil, the country sent 160.000 tons cwe to China-Hong Kong in January, 30% above last year’s level! Brazil also shipped 57% more meat to the US in January y-o-y and 25% more to the Middle East, confirming its ability to expand across diversified markets.
What trends are affecting China’s beef sector?
In a month, January beef prices rose by 2% and stood 23% above early 2025 levels, though still below their 2024 peak. Chinese prices remain just below Brazilian levels, as large inflows of Brazilian meat imports continued in January (+30% to China-Hong Kong). According to Chinese meat distributors, China imported a record 4.03 million tons cwe of beef in 2025 (+6% year‑on‑year). China also implemented safeguard measures on beef imports, with a 55% tariff volumes exceeding the global quota of 2.7 million tons per year. In January, Brazilian beef exports to China were still surging, up 30% y-o-y.
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