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Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)
Welcome back to our monthly Beef Market Outlook! We’re diving into the latest developments across the beef cattle markets in Europe, Brazil, China, and the USA. Our analysis is rooted in comprehensive data, keeping you informed on the key trends driving the industry.
SEE and share these insights!
GLOBAL BEEF MARKET TREND
In October, cattle prices went down again in China, as consumption is still trying to recover. Prices increased quickly in Brazil, the export demand for this competitive meat being strong in China and elsewhere, and the domestic demand improving too. In Europe prices stayed stable, at a high level, from lack of cattle. The US prices were up again with strong exports and from lack of cattle too.
BEEF PRICES IN EUROPE
In October, prices for male beef stayed flat compared to the previous month, but at a high level: 12% over last years’ level, which was already record. Young male prices have gone up quickly earlier this year than usually (in August-September) as the demand for this meat increases in autumn and winter, and while stock of fattening male cattle are very short in all E.U. Moreover, Turkish demand is high for young bull meat this year, with 56 000 tons cwe exported from the EU to the Turkey between January and August ( x2.3 /2023). Algeria has also bought 17 000 tons cwe from the EU (mainly Spain) compared to 0 for the same period in 2023.
BRAZIL BEEF MARKET SITUATION
Male beef prices jumped up in October (+16% in a month, in US$) after having already increased by 9% in September, compared to the previous month. Compared to a year ago, October prices were up by 14% too, because of the tremendous export demand. Added Brazilian exports of beef meat and processed meat in 2024 (January-October) have soared by 43% compared to last year! For example, exports to China increased by 12% compared to last year, and are over 1 million tons cwe (1,085 million tons cwe). Exports to the Arab Emirats amounted to 122 000 tons cwe ( x2,3 /2023), etc. October broke all monthly records ever known for Brazil. Slaughterhouses are still paying more for finished cattle in November to secure their industry, may it be for local retail or for meat export.
BEEF PRICES IN CHINA
In October, Chinese cattle prices fell back by 2%, compared to September, after having increased by 2% in August, in US$. Therefore, cattle prices remain widely under last year’s level (-20% /Oct. 2023). The beef demand in China isn’t very dynamic this year, even though Brazilian exports to China are at record level, increasing the country’s share in chinese meat imports. The increase of beef production and imports during the last years has put pressure on local producer prices, leading to panic among cattle fatteners and an increase in slaughtering in the first 9 months of 2024 by 4.6% /2023. The sluggish demand brought to less meat exports to China from May to September (-11% in Sept. and Aug. compared to 2023) but local prices are not improving. The country tries to bolster consumption (vouchers for catering, housing, leisure activities in Shanghai, and a new loan prime rate of 3.6% for a 5-year loan, down 25 basis points in October). These actions and other have apparently helped a slow consumption recovery in September (from 1.1% to 3.2% increase in consumption of certain products) letting some hope for better local beef prices.
USA’S CATTLE MARKET
The surge in beef imports during July (+26% compared to July 2023) put some negative pressure on finished steer prices in August-September, but the prices have gone up again by 2% in October compared to previous month and are 3% above y-o-year. We can see maybe the first signs of a re-stocking process in the US, since on October 1st, for the 1st time since mid-2023, there were fewer heifers on feed y-o-y. As of slaughtering, dressed weights are high, the good finished cattle prices encouraging farmers to add on weight to their cattle. US beef exports in September were 4% higher compared to last year. Beef imports were record high in September and the added US imports (January-September) were 21% above last year’s level. Imports from Australia, 2nd supplier of the US, are particularly high this year (+68%) as well as from Brazil (+45%) 3rd beef supplier of the US.
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