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Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)
Welcome back to our monthly Beef Market Outlook! we’re diving into the latest developments across the beef cattle markets in Europe, Brazil, China, and the USA. Our analysis is rooted in comprehensive data, keeping you informed on the key trends driving the industry.
SEE and share these insights!
GLOBAL BEEF MARKET TREND
In September, cattle prices have increased again in China, with the fall back of imports, which helps local producers. Prices are increasing for the 3rd month in Brazil: domestic demand is improving and exports are high. In Europe prices were also up, from lack of fattened cattle on the market. The US prices decreased, just like in August, after the July price peak.
EUROPE BEEF PRICES
In August, prices for male beef went up by 4% in US$, compared to the previous month. Young male prices are quickly going up, as seasonal demand for this meat increases in Germany, Italy, and while stock of fattening male cattle are short in all E.U. Moreover, Turkish demand is high for young bull meat this year, with 86 000 tons cwe exported to the country between January and July ( x3.2 /2023). The male beef price was therefore 11% above September 2023 prices.
BRAZIL BEEF MARKET SITUATION
Male beef prices went quickly up in September by +9% in US$ compared to the previous month, after having fallen during the first semester: dry weather and the increase of meat exports helped finished cattle’s prices up. From January to September, these exports have soared by 30% compared to 2023! The number of animals ready for slaughter may be restricted during the next months, the numbers of cattle in fattening lots having decreased during the first semester, compared to last year. And slaughter of cows and heifers were at record levels during the first quarter of 2024 (precedent record goes back to 2014) which means fewer births and smaller stock cattle available next year.
BEEF PRICES IN USA
The surge in beef imports during July (+26% compared to July 2023) put some negative pressure on finished steer prices in August and September, driving them down by 2% in that last month and bringing the price back to 2023 highs. Brazilian exports to China have slowed down a little in June and July, making more Brazilian beef (i.e. cheap trimmings) available for other markets, such as the US. As of slaughtering, dressed weights remain high in the Unites States, the still high finished-cattle prices giving incentive to farmers to add on a few pounds.
CHINA’S BEEF MARKET PRICES
In September, Chinese cattle prices increased by 2% /August, in US$, but only by 1% in CNY. Prices remain well behind 2023 (-18% / Sept. ’23). The beef demand in China is sluggish because of the bad economic situation of the country. The increase of beef production and imports during the last years has driven the local prices down. The sluggish demand has led to a fall in meat exports to China in May, June and August (-11% in August compared to 2023) which helps local prices to increase a bit. Higher prices are needed by the farmers, to cover production costs.
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