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Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)
Welcome to our Beef Market Outlook for September! In this edition, we bring you the latest updates on beef cattle markets from Europe, Brazil, China, and the USA. Our analysis is built on thorough data, offering you a clear view of the trends that matter most.
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CURRENT GLOBAL BEEF MARKET PRICES
In August, cattle prices have increased in China for the 3rd month in a row, helping local producers. Meat exports to China and Hong-Kong were equivalent to July 2023, after 2 months of decrease. Prices are increasing for the 2nd month in Brazil, since domestic demand is finally improving and exports are high. In Europe prices were also up after a short summer-season recline in male prices. Only in the US did we see prices draw back a bit, because of high volumes of beef imports in July.
EUROPE CATTLE PRICES
In August, prices for male beef went up by 3% in US$, compared to the previous month. The seasonal decrease in young male beef prices was short this summer, because Europe globally lacks meat and because of important young bull meat exports to Turkey and Algeria. The price was 4% above August 2023 high prices.
BRAZIL BEEF MARKET
Male beef prices have slightly increased in August (+2% in a month) just as they had in July 2024 (+1%) compared to the previous month, after having fallen during the entire first semester. In Reals, the price increased a bit more quickly (+3%) because the local currency has slightly decreased compared to July (-0,3%). But inflation is slowing down and the economic situation is improving, boosting local demand. Added to very strong beef exports (+29% during the 1stsemester, compared to 2023) male beef prices are therefore going up since summer. Since the beginning of 2023, Brazil is in a high-level of slaughtering cycle. During the 1st semester, the total number of cattle slaughtered has gone straight up, by 22%, compared to last year, which has led to the soar of Brazilian exports (+29%).
CATTLE MARKET IN CHINA
In August, Chinese cattle prices were improving (+3% /July) just as in July and June, in US$. Nevertheless, the prices are still behind 2023 (-16% / Aug. ’23). The beef demand in China is sluggish because of the bad economic situation of the country. The increase of beef production and imports in the last years has brought too much beef, driving the local prices down. The sluggish demand has led to a fall in meat exports to China in May and June (-21% /2023). But in July, World exports to China and Hong-Kong were equivalent to that of last year. The recovery of the imports may have slowed down the improvement of Chinese finished cattle prices in August. Higher prices are needed by the farmers, to cover production costs.
WHAT ARE THE BEEF PRICES IN USA?
The surge in beef imports during July (+26% compared to July 2023) put some negative pressure on finished steer prices in August, driving them down by 4% in a month, remaining just 1% above August 2023. Nevertheless, steer prices remain high. In total from January to July, imports have increased by 20% compared to 2023. As of production volumes, dressed weights have remained high in 2024 and may not recede during the 2nd semester: lower grain prices made longer feeding periods and heavier cattle possible, and good finished cattle prices helped this. Concerning the total beef production, USDA had first expected a drop by 5-6% in 2024 compared to 2023, because of the tight supplies. But with higher carcass weights, USDA now forecasts a recline of only 0.9% in beef production for 2024.
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