The Milk Market (Baptiste Buczinski)
Our December Milk Market Outlook is here! Dive into key updates from Europe, New Zealand, China, and the USA. Uncover insights driven by detailed data analysis, designed to keep you in the know about the ever-evolving dairy market.
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GLOBAL MILK MARKET PRICES
In November, pre-existing trends continued for raw milk prices: decline in China, downward adjustment in the US, increase in EU and NZ. However, the sharp strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies contained these increases. The animal health context is disrupting production in the EU and the US.
EUROPE´S MILK MARKET PRICES
EU raw milk price was still on the rise in November, in euro, but was down 1% in USD compared to Nov. 2023, at $55.63/100 kg (still +13% /November 2023). After a phase of stability around $50.00/100 kg in the first half of the year, the price took off in the second half of the year. The tension on milk resources within the EU, the impacts of FCO-3, and tensions on the fat market have contributed to price increases in most European countries. The price increase in € is expected to continue.
DAIRY MARKET TRENDS IN THE USA
US raw milk price slightly decreased in November, reaching $53.35/100 kg (-4% /October 2024 but still +12% / November 2023). US milk production experienced a significant decline in November 2024 (-1.0% compared to the previous year), due to a sharp drop in California (-9%) attributed to the widespread avian flu affecting over 645 dairy herds. The rest of the US showed a modest increase in milk output by 0.8%. These developments highlight a complex mix of supply and demand factors in the US dairy market.
MILK TRENDS IN NEW ZEALAND
In November, NZ raw milk price was still on a sharp rise, even in USD, at 44.96 $US (+2% /October 2024 and +32%/November 2023) thanks to a robust demand for NZ dairy products. These good prices boosted production in 2024 and is expected to continue to boost it in 2025. Fonterra has announced higher forecast farmgate milk price in 2025 as demand for cheese and WMP remains strong in key markets (Japan, South-East Asia, Algeria, Indonesia…).
CHINA’s MILK MARKET
Raw milk prices were still on pressure in China in November, at 43,26 $US/100 kg (-2% /October 2024 and -16% / November 2023). The weakening demand for dairy products in China, whereas production has increased significantly until 2023, lead to an oversupply. Milk production during the first 11 months of 2024 totalled 26.95 million tons (-2.4% /2023). It is expected that supply and demand imbalances will ease during the year 2025.
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