The Milk Market (Marion Cassagnou)
Check out our Milk Market Outlook report, where we uncover the latest happenings in the dairy industry spanning Europe, New Zealand, China, and the USA. Our insights draw from comprehensive data to ensure you’re informed about the freshest trends.
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GLOBAL RESULTS: MILK PRICE MARKET RESULTS
Changes in milk market prices vary from one area to another. Nevertheless, among exporters, milk prices appear to be recovering in the wake of the upward trend in the new Zealand GDT for dairy products. Even if China imports are still lower than previous years especially in whole milk powder, international demand is still important, stimulating the dairy trade.
MILK MARKET OUTLOOK IN EUROPE
European milk prices have fallen sharply from the historically high prices in 2022 during the first semester. This downward pressure appeared to ease in the last quarter. They reached $50.3/100 kg in December ( -18% vs. 2022). Indeed, European collection was lower than expected in the last quarter 2023 ( -1.6% vs. Q4 2022) mainly due to weather problems (storms, cold snap, excessive humidity in fields).
USA MILK MARKET TRENDS
The rebound in US milk prices over the summer is already over. At $45.4/100kg in December, milk prices were down -16% compared to last year. If the feed cost stabilizes, the margin indicator falls. Farmers milk production, which has been declining since July 2023, could therefore remain on a downward trend, same as livestock data.
MILK MARKET PRICES IN NEW ZEALAND
Prices for dairy products rose in New Zealand in the last quarter of 2023, allowing milk prices to recover. However, the price of milk remained down by -19% compared to last year at $35.4/100 kg for December, a level well below other exporters. The milk flush was disappointing in the last quarter of 2023 (same level as 2022, at its lowest since 2012).
MILK MARKET PRICE IN CHINA
China´s milk production has increased significantly in recent years (+10 Mt, or +33% since 2018) thanks to significant investments in mega-farms (>5,000 cows). In 2023, milk production is expected to increase by +4.6%/2022 to 41 Mt. On the other hand, consumption is struggling, hence the gap between supply and demand which leads to a decrease in milk prices ($51.4/100kg for December 2023 or -13% / 2022).
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