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The Milk Market (Baptiste Buczinski)
Get an in-depth look at the dairy industry with our Milk Market Outlook July report, covering Europe, New Zealand, China, and the USA. Our detailed findings from comprehensive data analysis will keep you informed about the latest market trends.
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GLOBAL RESULTS: MILK PRICE MARKET RESULTS
Quotes for dairy ingredients have continued their different trends since the start of 2024. World butter prices remain on a rising trend while those of SMP remain under pressure, in the wake of limited Chinese demand.
MILK PRICES IN EUROPE
In June 2024, for the 5th consecutive month, EU milk deliveries was stronger than during the previous year (+0.6% /June 2023). According to CLAL, in the first half of 2024, EU deliveries reached 75.4 Mt (+0.9% /2023) even if dynamics remained very diverse among member states, especially with a strong decrease in Ireland. EU average raw milk price remained higher than previous year, at $49.52/100 kg (= /May 2024 and +3% /June 2023).
USA MILK MARKET TRENDS
US raw milk prices were still on the rise in June. The average raw milk price has reached $50.26/100 kg, an increase of $11.01/100 kg year-to-year (+28% /June 2023 and +4% /May 2024). And the US dairy production remained weaker than previous years. For the 12th consecutive month, US dairy production was still down in June 2024 (-1.7% compared to June 2023).
MILK MARKET PRICES IN NEW ZEALAND
In June 2024, the seasonal decline in production remained strong and faster compared to 2023 (-0.9% /June 2023). In this production trough, the NZ raw milk price remained flat in NZ$ in June 2024 but has increased in US$: it has reached $36.36/100 kg (+1% /May 2024 but -2% /June 2023). Recently, some dairy companies have increased the forecasted milk price for the 2024/2025 season. In June, the number of dairy cows sent to slaughter during the month declined by around 15% from June 2023. But from the start of 2024 through June, cow slaughter numbers have slightly increase (+0.5% /2023) according to the USDA.
MILK MARKET PRICE IN CHINA
The dairy market in China remains under pressure. Weak demand for dairy products leads to overproduction and rising powder stocks. It also affects domestic prices and imports. In June, dairy prices were down again at $45.49/100 kg (-15% compared to June 2023 and -3% compared to May 2024). And the increasing self-sufficiency and a sluggish economy led to a fall in imports of dairy products. In the first half of 2024, imports of China were at their lowest since 2018, at 1.19 million tonnes (-14% /2023). This trend began in 2022.
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