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25 Jun 2026
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What does the Dairy Market Outlook May 2026 reveal?
What is driving global milk price trends?
The Dairy Market Outlook for May 2026, based on April 2026 data, shows that skim milk powder prices are trending upward due to limited availability in the United States.
These prices are supporting raw milk prices, particularly in the world’s leading economic power. Although global milk production remains strong across major dairy regions, early signs of a slowdown are being observed in certain areas.
What happened to EU milk deliveries in April 2026?
EU milk deliveries continued to set new records in April 2026, although performance varied increasingly across Member States. Total EU milk deliveries reached 13.34 million tonnes, up 2.7% year-on-year.
Strong growth was recorded in Germany, the Netherlands and Poland. France posted more modest gains. In contrast, milk deliveries fell in several key dairy-producing countries, notably Italy and Ireland.
The EU raw milk price softened slightly in euro terms, while remaining unchanged in US dollars at US$49.79 per 100 kg. This was stable compared with March 2026 but 16.2% below the level recorded in April 2025.
Why did US milk production continue to increase?
In the US, farm dairy margins improved following rising skim milk powder prices and higher milk prices. As a result, production continued to increase significantly.
US milk production reached record levels for the month of April, totalling 9.05 million tonnes, up 2.7% compared with 2025.
With SMP prices having reached record levels, the US raw milk price was up, at US$45.86/100 kg (+5.6% vs. March 2026 and -1.0% vs April 2025).
How is New Zealand’s dairy market performing?
In NZ, Fonterra, the cooperative that collects more than 80% of the milk produced in the country, confirmed high milk prices for the 2025/26 season and potentially for the 2026/27 season. Skim milk powder prices remain strong, and export performance is favourable.
As the industry approaches the seasonal low point in production, milk output totalled 1.54 million tonnes in April 2026, up 6.0% compared with 2025. NZ raw milk price remained flat NZ$ but was rising in US$, at US$42.96/100 kg (+1.3% vs. March 2026 and -2.9% vs April 2025).
Is dairy demand recovering in China?
Dairy demand recovers gradually in China, even if retail demand remain subdued. The business-to-business (B2B) foodservice channel is emerging increasingly as a growth driver. The expansion of bakery and coffee shop supports demand for dairy products.
However, although dairy product consumption is gradually recovering, raw milk price remains slightly flat at low level. It remained stable in local currency but was increasing in US$, at US$43.21/100 kg (+0.9% vs. March 2026 and +2.7% vs April 2025).
Source:
Writers:
Caroline Gremillet (market data), Baptiste Buczinski (ABCIS, milk market analysis).