Beef Market Outlook

In June, male carcass prices decreased by 4% in a month (US$) going 2% under 2025 record level. Europe’s beef consumption is lessened by the beef price increase in shops since early 2026, and by the three or four heatwaves that hit the continent since the end of May. Less heat since mid-July may help improve beef consumption in touristic areas : Italy, Greece, Spain, etc.

In June, steer prices declined by 1% in a month but were still 9% above last year’s historic record level. Cattle on feed on June the 1st was 2% above last years’ level, suggesting a lower processing pace than in 2025. 19 cases of New World Screw Worm in sheep and cattle have been found in Texas from June to early July. Carcass weights may finally decrease a bit during the 2nd semester. Beef imports increased by 10% in the first 5 months of 2026 compared to 2025, with the highest increases from Mexico (+27%) and Australia (+12%).

In June, Brazilian beef prices decreased by 3% in a month because of seasonal decrease in domestic demand, but were still 20% above 2025 level (US$). Brazilian beef exports increased significantly to 2.0 million cwe tons between January and June, +15% year-over-year. China & Hong Kong received 1.036 million cwe tons from Brazil in 6 months, +23% above 2025 record level. At the current pace, Brazil could reach its annual quota for exports to mainland China two months early, before the additional 55% tariff applies. Up to now; Brazil sent 13% more meat to the US y-o-y, 27% more to Egypt and +15% to the EU (total of 61.000 cwe tons).

In 2026, chinese beef prices have been increasing regularly until May, but declined by 4% in a month in June, still 10% above 2025 price. Brazil and Australia have speeded up their sales, Australia even hitting its maximum annual volume before 55% extra-tariff rate, at the beginning of June. High levels of frozen beef stocks, including state-held reserves, contributed to downward pressure on domestic prices.