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19 Oct 2026
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What are the key trends in the September 2026 Milk Market Outlook?
This September 2026 Milk Market Outlook is based on the latest available market data from August 2026. Annual growth rates in milk production slowed in August, except in the United States. Supplies nevertheless remain generally ample. Production could decline in the short term in the EU, while El Niño poses a threat, particularly in Oceania.
How did EU milk production and prices evolve in August 2026?
In the EU, overall milk collection held up in August. The growth of EU Milk collection in August 2026 remained slightly up year-on-year, at 12.50 million tons (+0.6% vs. 2025).
But performance across EU member states remains highly varied, from a sharp increase in Germany (+3%) to a decline in Ireland (-8%). With skim milk powder prices supported by strong export performance, farmgate milk prices edged up slightly.
EU milk price reached US$48.98/100 kg (+2.5% vs. July 2026 but -20.8% vs August 2025).
Why did U.S. milk production remain strong in August 2026?
US dairy market unchanged in August 2026. Margins above feed costs eased slightly, but milk production growth remained strong, supported by a dairy herd exceeding 9.7 million head (+1.8% YoY) and higher yields. US milk production reached 9.03 million tons (+1.8% vs. August 2025).
Following a price spike in May, skimmed milk powder prices declined, weighing on farmgate milk prices, which fell to US$43.65/100 kg (-2.5% vs. July 2026; -5.3% YoY) in August.
Recently, skimmed milk powder prices have rebounded, nearing last spring’s record highs and potentially supporting farmgate milk prices through year-end.
How is New Zealand’s 2026/27 dairy season progressing?
In New Zealand, the first three months of the new dairy season (June 2026–May 2027) saw milk production increase year-on-year. In August 2026, milk production reached a record high, at 1.48 million tons (+2.4% vs. August 2025).
Demand for protein and strong export performance are supporting farmgate milk prices. The raw milk price reached US$42.65/100 kg (+5.0% vs. July 2026 but -4.9% vs. August 2025).
Recently, Fonterra revised its forecast farmgate milk price midpoint for the 2026/27 season and narrowed its forecast range, reflecting recent improvements in global dairy commodity prices.
What is driving the gradual recovery in China’s dairy market?
No major change in the Chinese dairy market, which continues its gradual recovery following several years of challenging conditions. Milk inventories have returned to more manageable levels, contributing to a healthier market environment overall. Farmgate milk prices have stabilized after a prolonged decline and are now showing signs of recovery.
In August 2026, China’s raw milk price rose to US$45.43 per 100 kg, up 0.9% from July 2026 and 7.9% compared with August 2025 decreases recorded across several major product categories such as milk powder, whey, infant formula and cheese.
Source:
Writers:
Caroline Gremillet (market data), Baptiste Buczinski (ABCIS, milk market analysis).