Beef Market Outlook

Male carcass prices were stable in September compared to last month, slightly under 2025 records (-9%) but still 30% above 2024 good level. Italian, Spanish and French male prices stand still at levels at more moderate level. At the end of September, Brazilian exports to EU started decreasing, after Sept. 3rd ban on Brazilian beef, due to lack of traceability on antibiotic use during Brazilian cattle’s lif. 

In September, steer prices drew back by 3% in a month and were 9% under last year’s high level. The slaughter pace is still low because of small number of cattle on feed. The monthly extra trimmings quota for Argentinian beef was fully completed in September, and a new slice is open. The other quota, for lean beef from countries not in free-trade agreements with the USA (i.e. Brazil), was filled at 37% in September and reopened for October. US beef imports picked up speed in August, weighing down on local beef price. 

Brazilian beef prices increased by 1% in a month in September, and were 19% above 2025 (US$). Brazilian beef exports drew back by 37% y-o-y in September, as exports to mainland China shrank by about 90%, Brazil having filled its yearly quota of exports to China before the 55% extra-tariff. Therefore, August exports soared to the USA (x4.9, 63.000 tons cwe). Exports to the EU increased less than in August (+24% y-o-y) as Brazilian beef can no longer be exported to the EU since Sept. 2nd, due to obligation of recording antibiotic use during the entire life of cattle for EU. The 2-month decrease of Brazilian exports made added volumes contract (-2%). 

In September, beef cattle prices increased rapidly: +6% in a month and were 19% above 2025 prices. The September Mid-Autumn festival helped keep the prices up, as well as the sharp decline in Brazilian beef exports to China in August-September (around -90% y-o-y, because of the 55% tariff on out-of-quota beef to China). In the first 8 months of 2026, China & Hong Kong imported 9% less beef compared to last year.