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Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)
Here we bring you our monthly Beef Market Outlook to ensure you stay well-informed to the latest updates. Don’t miss out the prices in the world beef cattle markets. Here we deliver crucial information as we analyze key trends shaping the industry landscape.
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GLOBAL RESULTS: BEEF PRICE MARKET RESULTS
Beef cattle prices continued to face pressure in China and Brazil due to weakened purchasing power. Conversely, prices remained high in the USA due to limited supply and in the EU, where a good balance between supply and demand was observed.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT BEEF CATTLE MARKET PRICE IN EUROPE?
Prices for young male beef have increased in March 2024 (+6 US$ /February 2024) but remained slightly below last year levels. The cattle herd in the EU has decreased, resulting in fewer males available for fattening. Export demand remained strong, particularly for the month of Ramadan in Turkey and Algeria, while European demand held steady. The upcoming Orthodox Easter on May 5 is expected to revive the Greek market in late April.
BEEF PRICES IN BRAZIL
In March, male beef prices continued to weaken (beef carcass prices have fallen by 8% this year in BRL), despite the authorization for some new meatpackers to export to China. After a strong beginning, Brazilian beef exports saw sluggish movement during March according to Secex. Several other factors also contribute to the decrease in price: slow domestic market trade and the approach of colder months in Brazil, which adversely affects pasture conditions and prompts cattle farmers to increase supply. Weak consumer purchasing power, exacerbated by Lenten traditions that discourage red meat consumption, has further depressed sales in Brazil.
BEEF PRICE MARKET OUTLOOK IN CHINA
Chinese cattle prices were still down in March 2024 (-12 US$ / February 2024, in US$). In its last report (April 11) USDA forecasts a stabilization in beef consumption in China in 2024, after years of growth, as consumers turn to cheaper proteins. Beef imports are expected to decrease by 3% /2023 as production is expected to be 2% higher than last year. However, on the first 2 months of 2024, Chinese beef imports were 24% higher than in 2023. Certainly, economic growth is slowing, but the restaurant sector remains dynamic after several years of restrictions.
WHAT ARE THE CURRENT BEEF CATTLE PRICES IN USA?
Beef production for the year to April 6 was down 3.7% on the same period last year in the US. The shortage of animals to slaughter leads to high prices: the March average price for fed steers was 4 percent higher than February and 13 percent above March 2023. Meanwhile, US cash live cattle prices declined the last week of March after a big selloff in the futures market due to reports of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) affected several dairy herds. Note that no cases were reported in beef cattle.
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