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Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)
Welcome to our first Beef Market Outlook of 2025! In this edition, we bring you the latest updates on beef cattle markets from Europe, Brazil, China, and the USA. Our analysis is built on thorough data, offering you a clear view of the trends that matter most.
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GLOBAL BEEF MARKET TREND
In December, cattle prices were declining again in China and were underneath the Brazilian beef price for the third month. Brazilian prices reclined but were still above 2023 level, as export demand is very strong. US prices went up, with good domestic and export demand and smaller numbers of cattle to slaughter than last year. In Europe prices increased in €, with the increase of beef demand in several EU countries at Christmas.
BEEF PRICES IN EUROPE
In December, prices for male beef were stable compared to the previous month in US$ but continued increasing in € (+1% compared to previous month, after +3% one month ago, the € currency falling compared to the US$). Prices remained high: +7% over last year’s level in US$. Young male prices are increasing because of the lack of stock in the EU, and the demand for male’s meat is always higher in winter, when Christmas comes up.
BRAZIL BEEF MARKET SITUATION
In December, male beef prices fell back by 10% in US$, compared to previous month, after having increased by 9% in November. Compared to a year ago, prices are still above 2023 level, but by only 4%. demand. Prices in Real are much higher than a year ago (+29%). Brazilian exports have increase by 30% through the 10 first months of 2024, compared to 2023, setting a new record for Brazil.
BEEF PRICES IN CHINA
In December, Chinese cattle prices fell back again by 2% in US$, compared to November, just as every month since October. Cattle prices are well under the last two years’ level (-22% /2023 and -35% /2022). Demand is still not recovering due to the economic difficulties and the past years’ increase in imports, which weighs down on local prices. In consequence, small and medium cattle breeders and dairy farmers are losing money. Imports are at high level, especially coming from Brazil.
USA’S CATTLE MARKET
In December, steer prices increased by 4% compared to previous month and were clearly above last year’s : +14%. The seasonal decline in beef prices hasn’t really occurred this year, since less cattle is available and demand is strong. Beef slaughtering for 2024 should be at 2023 level, with heifers and cows representing 50% of the total cattle head slaughtered in the US, the 3rd highest level since 1986 (2022 and 2023 being the highest since that date). New World Screwworm (NWS) was found in cattle in Mexico at the end of November. Subsequently there is a ban on mexican cattle which should decrease slaughtering in 2025.
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