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Beef Market Outlook (Baptiste Buczinski)

Welcome again to our monthly Beef Market Outlook report, where we uncover the latest happenings in the world beef cattle markets across Europe, Brazil, China, and the USA. Our insights draw from comprehensive data to ensure you’re informed about the key trends shaping the industry landscape.

Feel free to SEE and share this valuable content. 

 


 

CURRENT GLOBAL BEEF MARKET PRICES

Cattle prices have finally increased a little in China, and beef exports to the country have surprisingly fallen back in May. The decrease of prices in Brazil is slower than previous month, and partly linked to the Real-US$ exchange rate. In Europe and the US, prices remained high in June, from lack of supply.

 


 

EUROPE

Prices for young male beef were stable in June 2024 (in US$) compared to the previous month. They increased by 1% / June 2023, due to the global lack of cattle ready to slaughter in the EU. Orthodox Easter (on May 5) revived the Greek demand for imported meat in May, mainly coming from other EU Member States. 

 


 

BRAZIL

Male beef prices dropped by 7% between May and June (in US$) but by 3% only in Real. According to local experts, the decrease of the males’ price in US$ is mainly linked to the Real’s loss of value of 5% in only a month (because of a lack of confidence in the Brazilian economy and it’s government, market speculation and instability of the US political situation). Supply for the slaughterhouses is increasing as the South Hemisphere winter advances (less grass production). The meatpackers are in demand and Brazilian exports should be at their maximum from August to October, if they follow their historical pattern.

 


 

CHINA

Chinese cattle prices have finally stopped dropping in June 2024 (+3% /May 2024) but were still greatly under last year’s level (-29%). The beef demand in China is sluggish because of economic situation. The increase of beef production and imports in the last years has brought a surplus of beef, driving the local prices down. But the sluggish demand has led to a halt in the increase of meat exports to China in May! In May, World exports to China and Hong-Kong fell back by 21% compared to May 2023. A month earlier, the added beef exports to China and Hong-Kong were still increasing during the first quarter of 2024 (Chinese Customs). Less imported beef on the market in May has led to better local prices for beef producers in June. According to Bloomberg’s recent note, farmers are now even asking local governments to pay for forage and give subsidies, after the plunge in prices they underwent in 2023-24.


 

USA

In June, prices of live finished steers were up 3% compared to May, and 5% up year over year. Prices increase because of the global lack of cattle in the US, and better wholesale prices for meatpackers during the last weeks. But globally the domestic demand is still sluggish, due to political uncertainty, and some cattle is being kept in feedlots, because the rhythm of slaughter is not so fast. On May the 1st the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days was 12% up compared to last year in May and at it’s highest level since 12 years. Therefore, cattle carcass weights are still going up.

 

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