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Beef cattle market (Baptiste Buczinski)
Welcome to our monthly Cattle Market Outlook, your go-to resource for the latest insights on beef prices worldwide. Join us as we analyze key trends shaping the industry landscape, providing valuable information to keep you informed. Explore the complexities of the beef market, uncovering challenges and opportunities that impact pricing dynamics.
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GLOBAL RESULTS: BEEF PRICE MARKET RESULTS
Dynamics of beef prices vary from one part of the World to another. Prices are especially strong in the US. Despite all the uncertainty (especially in China, the main beef importer in the World), international demand should remain strong (except in the EU), supporting beef trade.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT MARKET PRICE FOR BEEF CATTLE IN EUROPE?
Prices for male beef are stable in Euros in February vs January but not in US$ (-1%) and are down 2,5% vs. February 2023 in Euros. Demand for European beef remains strong for the export. Turkey has reopened its market in 2023 due to a shortage of meat and Algeria has reopened its market to Spanish meat. The start of Ramadan is now boosting the European export market, while supply in Europe remains limited. According to the European Commission and the USDA, cattle herd is forecast to shrink for the 8th successive year in 2024.
BEEF PRICES IN USA
The February average price for fed steers in the 5-area marketing region (Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma) was 4% higher than January and 13% higher than February 2023. In early March, prices continued to rise and demand for U.S. beef remained strong. But with wholesale beef prices high, meatpackers now have less incentive to pay higher prices to move cattle out of feedlots more quickly. According to the USDA, packers are expected to pay more for fed cattle later in the year when marketable supplies will be lower. Globally, USDA expects U.S. beef to continue to be less competitive, especially as Australian beef production increases. In January 2024, monthly U.S. beef exports were 4 percent lower than last year and 8 percent lower than the 2019-23 average.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT MARKET PRICE FOR BEEF CATTLE IN BRAZIL?
In February 2024, prices continued to fall (-18% vs. February 2023 and -5% vs. January 2024, in US$) in the wake of slowing inflation. With the fall in prices, Brazilian exports reached a new record level in 2023 (2.29 MT, +1% vs. 2022) and remained high at the beginning of 2024. And according to CEPEA, Brazilian companies may need more animals to meet global market demand. Cattle farmers tend to increase the number of animals in their herd for export due to the possible increase in demand and prices in the medium term.
BEEF PRICE MARKET OUTLOOK IN CHINA
Beef prices were still down in February 2024 (-22% vs. February 2023 and -4% vs. January 2024, in USD) due to the economic downturn and a decline in consumption. According to the USDA, economic headwinds will continue to impact beef consumption in 2024. With an expected increase in Chinese beef production, beef imports could decline in 2024 due to an expected flat demand. And the decline in consumption due to lower purchasing power could put pressure on domestic prices.
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