News and Events
15 Sep 2026
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What are the key trends in the milk market in July 2026?
This Milk Market Outlook, published in August, is based on the latest available market data from July 2026. However, repeated heatwaves across the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in Europe, together with the expected onset of a significant El Niño event, are raising concerns about milk availability in the coming months.
How did EU milk production perform despite the summer heat?
Despite repeated heatwaves, particularly in Western Europe, EU milk deliveries remained robust in July 2026. Milk collection reached 12.88 million tonnes, up 1.7% year-on-year.
Heatwave impacts varied across member states. Deliveries were broadly stable in France, the Netherlands, Italy and Poland, but increased in Ireland (+4.0%), Germany (+7.5%) and Denmark (+5.5%).
In July 2026, the EU raw milk price stabilized in euro terms but was down in US dollars, at US$47.93/100 kg, representing a decrease of 0.6% compared with June 2026 and 22.4% compared with July 2025.
Rising EU skim milk powder prices and concerns over milk availability could provide support to raw milk prices.
Why did U.S. raw milk prices decline in July?
U.S. dairy market conditions changed little in July, while milk production continued to increase and raw milk prices moved lower.
Low slaughter rates, favourable milk-to-feed margins and longer cow retention continued to support production, while strong demand for beef-on-dairy calves sustained herd numbers.
As a result, July 2026 milk production reached a record 9.14 million tonnes, up 2.2% year-on-year.
The decline in dairy commodity prices, particularly skim milk powder prices, put downward pressure on farmgate milk prices. The U.S. raw milk price fell to US$44.75/100 kg, down 3.8% compared with June 2026 and 2.4% compared with July 2025.
How is New Zealand’s new dairy season starting?
New Zealand’s 2026/27 dairy season continued to get off to a flying start in July, with milk production showing a marked year-on-year increase.
The new 2026/27 dairy season, running from June 2026 to May 2027, continued its strong start. In July 2026, New Zealand milk production reached 335,000 tons, up 7.4% compared with July 2025.
Although demand for proteins remains strong, still relatively high global market availability is raising a few questions for New Zealand’s leading dairy operator, Fonterra Cooperative.
These uncertainties are putting slight pressure on prices, which began to decline at the beginning of the summer.
What is supporting the recovery in Chinese raw milk prices?
The slow recovery of the Chinese dairy market continued in early summer 2026, as milk production declined and powder stocks reached acceptable levels.
Milk production continued to decrease, affected by foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in early spring, heatwaves at the beginning of summer and lower yields per cow.
As a result, the price of raw milk in China began to show a modest recovery. In July 2026, the Chinese raw milk price increased again to US$45.01/100 kg, up 0.6% compared with June 2026 and 6.2% compared with July 2025.
Source:
Writers:
Caroline Gremillet (market data), Baptiste Buczinski (ABCIS, milk market analysis).