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The Milk Market (Marion Cassagnou)
Check out our Milk Market Outlook report, offering a comprehensive analysis of the dairy industry across key regions such as Europe, New Zealand, China, and the USA. Delve into our insightful findings derived from extensive data analysis, providing you with up-to-date information on the latest trends shaping the market landscape.
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GLOBAL RESULTS: MILK PRICE MARKET RESULTS
There is considerable heterogeneity between changes in milk prices among the main exporters depending mostly on the export dynamic. Operators remain especially vigilant on the evolution of milk collection in the EU-27 because it’s flush time and volumes are difficult to anticipate depending on the country.
MILK MARKET OUTLOOK IN EUROPE
European milk prices have felt sharply during 2023 but the downward pressure appeared to ease in the last quarter. In January, they stabilized at $51/100 kg (-15% /2023). We observed mix trends on the evolution of collection in EU-27 bringing uncertainty to the dairy markets whereas it’s the beginning of flush period.
USA MILK MARKET TRENDS
Milk prices fall in January -2% compared to last month and -13% vs last year at $44.3/100kg. Nevertheless, USDA expect this price to raise reflecting higher prices for butter and cheese. Milk production, which has been declining since July 2023, is expected to remain on a downward trend, as livestock data.
MILK MARKET PRICES IN NEW ZEALAND
In January 2024, New Zealand’s exports increased in milk equivalent. At the same time, the collection remains lower than last year and at the same time dairy prices were raising. So milk prices rised steadily at 36,6 $/100kg in January. However, it remained down by -11% compared to last year.
MILK MARKET PRICE IN CHINA
This fall in milk prices is mainly related to the increase in collection in a context where consumption remains sluggish ($51.4/100kg for December 2023 or -13% / 2022). In 2023, milk production was up +6.8% to 41.97 Mt according to Chinese statistics. Chinese milk production has increased significantly in recent years (+10 Mt, or +33% since 2018).
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