News and Events
26 Aug 2026
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What are the key trends in the milk market in July 2026?
The July 2026 Milk Market Outlook shows that global milk supply remained strong in June 2026, while raw milk prices continued to trend downward in the EU and New Zealand. At the same time, there are signs of a recovery in China after more than three years of decline.
This Milk Market Outlook, published in July, is based on the latest available market data from June 2026. Is this recovery in China a sustainable trend?
What is happening in the EU milk market?
Despite emerging drought conditions, EU milk collection remained strong in June 2026 at 12.98 million tons (+2.2% vs. 2025).
However, successive summer heatwaves are expected to slow growth in the coming months, while raw milk prices remain under pressure. Collection trends were mixed across member states: France rebounded in June (+1.2% year-on-year) after a decline in May, whereas Ireland continued to contract (-3.1% year-on-year). With supply remaining ample, the EU raw milk price edged lower in June 2026 to US$48.77/100 kg, down 1.8% from May 2026 and 19.9% from June 2025.
What is happening in the U.S. dairy market?
No significant change in the U.S. dairy market. In June 2026, milk production reached a new record for the month of June at 8.99 million tons (+3.0% vs. 2025). The herd remains sizeable, while milk yields have continued to improve so far. While skim milk powder price has fallen from its May peak, it remains attractive. However, the price of raw milk has logically edged lower, at US$46.52/100 kg (-0.9% vs. May 2026 but +0.9% vs June 2025).
What is happening in the New Zealand milk market?
In New Zealand, following a record production season in 2025/26 (June 2025–May 2026), milk production in June 2026 was still higher year-on-year. During the low point of the production cycle, production still reached 335,000 tons (+7.4% vs. June 2025). But prices are now under pressure. NZ raw milk price has dropped in June 2026 in NZ$ and in US$, at US$40.66/100 kg (-6.5% vs. May 2026 and -11.2% vs June 2025).
Fonterra, New Zealand’s largest dairy co-operative, has lowered its forecast farmgate milk price for the current season, citing weaker demand from major Asian import markets and increased milk supply in other key exporting regions.
Is China’s raw milk market recovering?
China’s raw milk market is showing signs of recovery after more than three years of decline. While the rebound remained modest in June 2026, the raw milk price rose to US$44.72/100 kg (+0.7% vs. May 2026; +5.6% vs. June 2025) and continued to strengthen in July.
The increase was partly driven by foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks earlier in the year and summer heat stress, both of which reduced milk yields. As a result, milk supply has tightened, while the Chinese dairy industry’s total milk powder inventory is estimated at below 50,000, a healthy level.
Source:
Writers:
Caroline Gremillet (market data), Baptiste Buczinski (ABCIS, milk market analysis).