Milk Market Outlook

What does the Dairy Market Outlook June 2026 reveal?

What is driving global milk price trends?

The Dairy Market Outlook for June 2026, based on May 2026 data, shows that skim milk powder prices are trending upward due to limited availability in the United States.

These prices are supporting raw milk prices, particularly in the world’s leading economic power. Although global milk production remains strong across major dairy regions, early signs of a slowdown are being observed in certain areas.

What happened to EU milk deliveries in May 2026?

Year on year, EU milk deliveries reached a record high in May 2026 at 13.83 million tons (+2.6% vs. 2025). With milk deliveries continuing to increase in Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands. 

Collections declined slightly in France, Spain, and Ireland. A significant drop is expected in the coming weeks across Western Europe where intense heatwaves take their toll.

For now, milk supplies remain ample, putting downward pressure on farmgate milk price. EU Raw milk price was slightly down in euro and in US dollars, at US$49.79/100 kg (-0.9% vs. April 2026 and -17.0% vs May 2025).

Why did US milk production continue to increase?

No change in U.S. milk production, with dairy farm margins supported by strong skim milk powder and milk prices.

In May 2026, milk production reached a new record at 9.33 million tons (+2.3% vs. 2025). Output growth continues to be driven by both an expanding dairy herd and higher milk yields per cow.

With skim milk powder prices remaining at elevated levels, the US raw milk price was still up, at US$46.96/100 kg (+2.6% vs. April 2026 and = vs May 2025).

What is the outlook for New Zealand milk prices in May 2026?

In New Zealand, milk production in May 2026 was once again higher year-on-year, reaching 1.54 million tons (+3.6% vs. 2025). As a result, the 2025/26 season (June 2025–May 2026) ended with a new all-time production record.

In NZ dollars, NZ raw milk price remained flat in May 2026 in NZ$ but was rising in US$, at US$43.49/100 kg (+0.8% vs. April 2026 but -3.6% vs May 2025). But Fonterra, the cooperative that collects most of the country’s milk, has revised downward its forecast farmgate milk price range for the 2026/27 season, citing weaker-than-expected global demand and continued abundant milk supplies. And the approaching intense El Niño phenomenon is raising concerns…

Is Chinese raw milk demand recovering in May 2026?

The Chinese dairy sector continues its slow recovery. Consumption is growing but remains fragile. To dispose of its surplus milk, China has become an exporter of skim milk powder.

Through April 2026 Chinese SMP exports reached 4,000 metric tons, doubling year-on-year. Chinese operators continue to increase their production capacities for cream, butter, and skim milk powder. In the meantime, raw milk price increased marginally in local currency and in US$, at US$44.57/100 kg (+0.9% vs. April 2026 and +4.7% vs May 2025). 

Source:

Writers:

Caroline Gremillet (market data), Baptiste Buczinski (ABCIS, milk market analysis).

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