News and Events
30 Apr 2026
Share on:
What is the milk market outlook in March 2026?
Why did dairy prices rebound in March 2026?
The Milk Market Outlook for March 2026, based on February 2026 data, dairy prices rebounded as some buyers, judging the market to have bottomed out, stepped in to hedge. Geopolitical uncertainty also played a key role, and the overall price decline has now stalled despite ample supply.
How is milk production evolving in the European Union?
Milk production in the European Union remained strong in February 2026, despite less supportive price signals compared with previous months. Total milk deliveries reached 11.41 million tons, an increase of 3.8% or 446,000 tons versus 2025. Production levels remain solid across all major European dairy producers and exporters.
Farmgate prices, however, continued to decline in most countries. The average EU raw milk price stood at US$52.42/100 kg, down 1.1% versus January 2026 and 6.3% versus February 2025. Ireland was the exception, as rising dairy commodity prices drove a rebound in its highly responsive milk price.
What is driving the US milk market in 2026?
US milk production remained strong in February 2026, reaching 8.28 million tons, up 2.9% or 231,000 tons versus 2025. Limited skim milk powder availability is supporting prices, as producers continue to prioritize cheese and whey production over skim milk powder and butter.
Stronger global demand for dairy products has contributed to a slight recovery in milk prices. As a result, US raw milk prices have rebounded to US$40.34/100 kg, up 4.6% versus January 2026 but still down 22.5% versus February 2025.
How is New Zealand influencing global dairy prices?
Milk production in New Zealand remained high in February 2026, reaching 1.98 million tons, an increase of 6.0% or 112,000 tons versus 2025. Dairy commodity prices continued to rebound, supported by stronger buyer demand, while ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Iran, are expected to sustain this trend in the coming weeks.
The New Zealand raw milk price continued to rise, reaching US$43.38/100 kg, up 2.8% versus January 2026 and 0.5% versus February 2025.
What is happening in China’s dairy market?
The Chinese dairy market continues to show limited and gradual recovery. In February 2026, the raw milk price increased slightly to US$43.94/100 kg, up 1.1% versus January 2026 and 2.9% versus February 2025. Despite this improvement, price levels remain relatively low.
However, China continues to attract major dairy industry players in the medium and long term. Recently, Fonterra, the main New Zealand cooperative group, announced a new investment of NZ$75 million (US$42.9 million) to expand butter production capacity in New Zealand, driven by expectations of growing Chinese demand.
Source:
