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13 Nov 2026
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What are the key trends in the October 2026 Milk Market Outlook?
This October 2026 Milk Market Outlook is based on the latest available market data from September 2026. Milk collection growth has slowed in some regions, particularly in the EU, although supplies remain abundant among the main exporting countries. Demand for dairy proteins remains strong, while milk fats are facing greater difficulties.
How much milk did the EU produce in September 2026?
In the EU, cow’s milk production is growing at a slower pace year-on-year but remains at a high level. EU-27 milk collections recorded a modest year-on-year increase in September 2026, at 11.89 million tons (+0.4% compared with 2025).
Collections increased in Denmark, with more limited growth in Germany and France. They remained stable in Poland and declined in the Netherlands and Ireland. With exports performing well so far and skim milk powder prices rising, milk prices have started to recover despite abundant supplies.
In September, the EU milk price rose again, at US$50.98/100 kg (+2.5% vs. August 2026 but -18.6% vs September 2025).
What are the latest trends in US milk production and farmgate milk prices?
The US dairy market remained driven by a large dairy herd and strong milk output in September.
The herd exceeded 9.7 million head (+1.8% YoY) and milk production reached 8.82 million tonnes (+2.6% vs. September 2025).
Despite skim milk powder prices rebounding to US$4,500-5,000/t, ample supply continued to pressure farmgate prices. As a result, the US raw milk price slipped to US$42.99/100 kg in September 2026 (-1.5% vs. August 2026; -4.4% vs. September 2025).
What is Fonterra’s milk price forecast for the 2026/27 dairy season?
In New Zealand, September milk production reached 2.69 million tonnes, up 1.1% year-on-year but 0.6% below the September 2020 record.
The NZ raw milk price rose 2.6% month-on-month in NZD, while the increase was limited in USD by exchange rates, reaching US$42.74/100 kg (+0.2% vs. August 2026; -4.4% vs. September 2025).
Fonterra raised its 2026/27 milk price forecast again, citing stronger demand for whole and skimmed milk powder and a robust order book despite record milk collections.
How are Chinese dairy prices and exports changing?
China’s dairy market continues its gradual recovery after a prolonged restructuring driven by domestic overproduction, lower dairy ingredient imports, and price pressure.
Once a major importer, China now has surplus dairy powders and ingredients, although stocks are under control and export activity, particularly across Asia, continues. As a result, prices are steadily improving.
In September 2026, the Chinese farmgate milk price rose to US$45.91/100 kg (+1.1% vs. August 2026; +7.9% vs. September 2025).
Source:
Writers:
Caroline Gremillet (market data), Baptiste Buczinski (ABCIS, milk market analysis).